Post by salamut2202 on Nov 11, 2011 12:42:04 GMT
The End of Oil and What It Means for You
Like it or not, world production of oil is/has peaked. From now on mankind will not be able to rely on this wonderful resource that has literally fuelled the worlds economy since the age of steam. Yet you probably ask, where is the news report? Why isn't the media in a frenzy, why hasn't the world chugged out of gas yet? It's a good question, the answer is we have known about it so long that it makes a slow news day, and anyhow, peak oil is not the same as the end of oil.
Yet before I explore what is happening in the world I want to stress the nature of a little thing called growth.
Let us take this little example:
I am drinking a bottle of water and it takes 1min for me to finish it, and each second I drink the water twice as fast as I did before. How long did it take me to drink half the bottle?
Answer:
30 seconds?
If only! It may supprise you to find that the bottle was still half full 59secs after I started drinking.
Surprised? Maybe not, but think about that bottle example, as oil, when I am drinking the fastest, there is only half the available liquid left, then think about this, if we are consuming oil at the fastest rate today, how long is it going to be before the bottle is empty?
This is the state of the world today, and the oil is gone in a blink of an eye.
But we've all heard before that technology will save us, new oil fields will be found; "Don't worry, it's only a question of innovation!" It sounds pretty plausible, I mean how could there be that many smart people in the world and non of them are worried? The truth is, our governments and media just don't want to listen.
Let's look at new oil field discoveries;
Doesn't look that promising really does it, but then let's look at production;
It's rather clear that that exponetial growth has stalled with only major discoveries like polar oil and Alaska keeping that world curve just about steady.
The short message is that new oil is just not going to be found anymore to sustain our demard for cheap energy. Just look where we are on that curve. Now recall that graph about how much oil is left in the world and how quickly the world goes from 'full tank' to 'empty'. This isn't just us having reduction in supply rates, this is us litterally using up the last drop of (economic) oil by perhaps as soon as 2025.
"But Science will provide the answer! Won't it?"
Well let's first find out how much energy is in a mass of oil compared to other energy generating methods;
200 Three Gorges Dams, or
2,600 Nuclear Power Plants, or
5,200 Coal Fired, or
1,642,500 Wind Turbines, or
4,562,500,000 Solar Panels
Dang! And that's just 1 cubic mile???!
Well if you think about it, oil is the stored energy of thousands of years of solar energy condensed down into an incredibly energy dense liquid, litterally we burn through centuries worth of energy every few seconds!!!
A comparison of energy densities of other 'scientific' answers to when we run out of energy;
"But nesscity is the mother of invention?"
Just hope it is enough and the worlds eggheads aren't as caught short as the rest of us on the motorway at finding something as cheap, exportable and energy dense as oil…
"…And if they can't?"
Well the first thing that we must realise is that cheap energy has driven world economic growth directly;
So as the oil runs out, it's not just that we run out of oil. There will be global recession, yet again far worse than the credit crunch, we may fall into depression, and if not kept in check by very careful government control, out and out collaspe of industrial soceity.
The question that you must be asking yourself today is;
How is my country preparing for the next global recession; the oils' already running out?
We shouldn't be looking to economic growth, because it is fundermentally unsustainable in a world with finite resources. The only sustainable growth rate is 0%, and that's only if that resource is 100% recyclible…
"Is that it?"
Well did you know that your entire food supply is based on a cheap oil supply? Yes, that's right your food.
"Why Our Food Is So Dependent On Oil
By Norman Church"
"Eating Oil" was the title of a book which was published in 1978 following the first oil crisis in 1973 (1). The aim of the book was to investigate the extent to which food supply in industrialised countries relied on fossil fuels. In the summer of 2000 the degree of dependence on oil in the UK food system was demonstrated once again when protestors blockaded oil refineries and fuel distribution depots. The fuel crises disrupted the distribution of food and industry leaders warned that their stores would be out of food within days. The lessons of 1973 have not been heeded.
Today the food system is even more reliant on cheap crude oil. Virtually all of the processes in the modern food system are now dependent upon this finite resource, which is nearing its depletion phase.
Moreover, at a time when we should be making massive cuts in the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in order to reduce the threat posed by climate change, the food system is lengthening its supply chains and increasing emissions to the point where it is a significant contributor to global warming.
The organic sector could be leading the development of a sustainable food system. Direct environmental and ecological impacts of agriculture 'on the farm' are certainly reduced in organic systems. However, global trade and distribution of organic products fritter away those benefits and undermine its leadership role.
Not only is the contemporary food system inherently unsustainable, increasingly, it is damaging the environment.
The systems that produce the world's food supply are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Vast amounts of oil and gas are used as raw materials and energy in the manufacture of fertilisers and pesticides, and as cheap and readily available energy at all stages of food production: from planting, irrigation, feeding and harvesting, through to processing, distribution and packaging. In addition, fossil fuels are essential in the construction and the repair of equipment and infrastructure needed to facilitate this industry, including farm machinery, processing facilities, storage, ships, trucks and roads. The industrial food supply system is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels and one of the greatest producers of greenhouse gases.
Ironically, the food industry is at serious risk from global warming caused by these greenhouse gases, through the disruption of the predictable climactic cycles on which agriculture depends. But global warming can have the more pronounced and immediate effect of exacerbating existing environmental threats to agriculture, many of which are caused by industrial agriculture itself. Environmental degradation, water shortages, salination, soil erosion, pests, disease and desertification all pose serious threats to our food supply, and are made worse by climate change. But many of the conventional ways used to overcome these environmental problems further increase the consumption of finite oil and gas reserves. Thus the cycle of oil dependence and environmental degradation continues.
Industrial agriculture and the systems of food supply are also responsible for the erosion of communities throughout the world. This social degradation is compounded by trade rules and policies, by the profit driven mindset of the industry, and by the lack of knowledge of the faults of the current systems and the possibilities of alternatives. But the globalisation and corporate control that seriously threaten society and the stability of our environment are only possible because cheap energy is used to replace labour and allows the distance between producer and consumer to be extended.
However, this is set to change. Oil output is expected to peak in the next few years and steadily decline thereafter. We have a very poor understanding of how the extreme fluctuations in the availability and cost of both oil and natural gas will affect the global food supply systems, and how they will be able to adapt to the decreasing availability of energy. In the near future, environmental threats will combine with energy scarcity to cause significant food shortages and sharp increases in prices - at the very least. We are about to enter an era where we will have to once again feed the world with limited use of fossil fuels. But do we have enough time, knowledge, money, energy and political power to make this massive transformation to our food systems when they are already threatened by significant environmental stresses and increasing corporate control?
The modern, commercial agricultural miracle that feeds all of us, and much of the rest of the world, is completely dependent on the flow, processing and distribution of oil, and technology is critical to maintaining that flow.
Oil refined for gasoline and diesel is critical to run the tractors, combines and other farm vehicles and equipment that plant, spray the herbicides and pesticides, and harvest/transport food and seed Food processors rely on the just-in-time (gasoline-based) delivery of fresh or refrigerated food Food processors rely on the production and delivery of food additives, including vitamins and minerals, emulsifiers, preservatives, colouring agents, etc. Many are oil-based. Delivery is oil-based Food processors rely on the production and delivery of boxes, metal cans, printed paper labels, plastic trays, cellophane for microwave/convenience foods, glass jars, plastic and metal lids with sealing compounds. Many of these are essentially oil-based Delivery of finished food products to distribution centres in refrigerated trucks. Oil-based, daily, just-in-time shipment of food to grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals, schools, etc., all oil-based; customer drives to grocery store to shop for supplies, often several times a week
ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND THE FOOD SYSTEM
Our food system is energy inefficient...
One indicator of the unsustainability of the contemporary food system is the ratio of energy outputs - the energy content of a food product (calories) - to the energy inputs.
The latter is all the energy consumed in producing, processing, packaging and distributing that product. The energy ratio (energy out/energy in) in agriculture has decreased from being close to 100 for traditional pre-industrial societies to less than 1 in most cases in the present food system, as energy inputs, mainly in the form of fossil fuels, have gradually increased.
However, transport energy consumption is also significant, and if included in these ratios would mean that the ratio would decrease further. For example, when iceberg lettuce is imported to the UK from the USA by plane, the energy ratio is only 0.00786. In other words 127 calories of energy (aviation fuel) are needed to transport 1 calorie of lettuce across the Atlantic. If the energy consumed during lettuce cultivation, packaging, refrigeration, distribution in the UK and shopping by car was included, the energy needed would be even higher. Similarly, 97 calories of transport energy are needed to import 1 calorie of asparagus by plane from Chile, and 66 units of energy are consumed when flying 1 unit of carrot energy from South Africa.
Just how energy inefficient the food system is can be seen in the crazy case of the Swedish tomato ketchup. Researchers at the Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology analysed the production of tomato ketchup (2). The study considered the production of inputs to agriculture, tomato cultivation and conversion to tomato paste (in Italy), the processing and packaging of the paste and other ingredients into tomato ketchup in Sweden and the retail and storage of the final product. All this involved more than 52 transport and process stages.
The aseptic bags used to package the tomato paste were produced in the Netherlands and transported to Italy to be filled, placed in steel barrels, and then moved to Sweden. The five layered, red bottles were either produced in the UK or Sweden with materials form Japan, Italy, Belgium, the USA and Denmark. The polypropylene (PP) screw-cap of the bottle and plug, made from low density polyethylene (LDPE), was produced in Denmark and transported to Sweden. Additionally, LDPE shrink-film and corrugated cardboard were used to distribute the final product. Labels, glue and ink were not included in the analysis.
This example demonstrates the extent to which the food system is now dependent on national and international freight transport. However, there are many other steps involved in the production of this everyday product. These include the transportation associated with: the production and supply of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium fertilisers; pesticides; processing equipment; and farm machinery. It is likely that other ingredients such as sugar, vinegar, spices and salt were also imported. Most of the processes listed above will also depend on derivatives of fossil fuels. This product is also likely to be purchased in a shopping trip by car.
One study has estimated that UK imports of food products and animal feed involved transportation by sea, air and road amounting to over 83 billion tonne-kilometres (3). This required 1.6 billion litres of fuel and, based on a conservative figure of 50 grams of carbon dioxide per tonne-kilometre resulted in 4.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions (4). Within the UK, the amount of food transported increased by 16% and the distances travelled by 50% between 1978 and 1999.
It has been estimated that the CO2 emissions attributable to producing, processing, packaging and distributing the food consumed by a family of four is about 8 tonnes a year (5)
..and is unnecessarily contributing to carbon emissions.
It is not that this transportation is critical or necessary. In many cases countries import and export similar quantities of the same food products (6). A recent report has highlighted the instances in which countries import and export large quantities of particular foodstuffs (6). For example, in 1997, 126 million litres of liquid milk was imported into the UK and, at the same time, 270 million litres of milk was exported from the UK. 23,000 tonnes of milk powder was imported into the UK and 153,000 tonnes exported (7). UK milk imports have doubled over the last 20 years, but there has been a four-fold increase in UK milk exports over the last 30 years (8).
Britain imports 61,400 tonnes of poultry meat a year from the Netherlands and exports 33,100 tonnes to the Netherlands. We import 240,000 tonnes of pork and 125,000 tonnes of lamb while exporting 195,000 tonnes of pork and 102,000 tonnes of lamb (6).
This system is unsustainable, illogical, and bizarre and can only exist as long as inexpensive fossil fuels are available and we do not take significant action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
GLOBAL WARMING AND FINITE OIL
The threat of global warming and the need to reduce carbon emissions
The nearness of the depletion stage of oil supplies
Discovery of oil and gas peaked in the 1960s. Production is set to peak too, with five Middle Eastern countries regaining control of world supply (9). Almost two-thirds of the world's total reserves of crude oil are located in the Middle East, notably in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq (10). An assessment of future world oil supply and its depletion pattern shows that between 1980 and 1998 there was an 11.2 per cent increase in world crude oil production, from 59.6 to 66.9 million barrels of oil per day (10). Current world production rates are about 25 Gb (billion barrels) per year. A simple calculation shows that if consumption levels remain constant, world crude oil reserves, at approximately 1 trillion barrels, could be exhausted around 2040 (11).
The oil crises of the 1970s when the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) states reined in their production have passed into folk memory. However, they were accompanied by massive disruption and global economic recession. The same happened in 1980 and 1991 (12).
Colin J. Campbell, a pre-eminent oil industry analyst, believes that future crises will be much worse. "The oil shocks of the 1970s were short-lived because there were then plenty of new oil and gas finds to bring on stream. This time there are virtually no new prolific basins to yield a crop of giant fields sufficient to have a global impact. The growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil, before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The world's economy has been driven by an abundant supply of cheap oil-based energy for the best part of this century. The coming oil crisis will accordingly be an economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment" (9).
The three main purposes for which oil is used worldwide are food, transport and heating. In the near future the competition for oil for these three activities will be raw and real. An energy famine is likely to affect poorer countries first, when increases in the cost of paraffin, used for cooking, place it beyond their reach. Following the peak in production, food supplies all over the world will begin to be disrupted, not only because of price increases but because the oil will no longer be there.
IS ORGANIC ANY DIFFERENT?
The organic system is more energy efficient to the farm gate...
One of the benefits of organic production is that energy consumption and, therefore, fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, are less than that in conventional systems.
The energy used in food production is separated into direct and indirect inputs. Indirect inputs include the manufacture and supply of pesticides, feedstuffs and fertilisers while direct energy inputs are those on the farm, such as machinery. One measure of the energy efficiency of food production that allows a comparison between different farming practices is the energy consumed per unit output, often expressed as the energy consumed per tonne of food produced (MJ/tonne) or the energy consumed per kilogram of food (MJ/kg).
A study comparing organic and conventional livestock, dairy, vegetable and arable systems in the UK found that, with average yields, the energy saving with organic production ranged from 0.14 MJ/kg to 1.79 MJ/kg, with the average being 0.68 MJ/kg or 42 per cent (13). The improved energy efficiency in organic systems is largely due to lower (or zero) fertiliser and pesticide inputs, which account for half of the energy input in conventional potato and winter wheat production and up to 80 per cent of the energy consumed in some vegetable crops.
In conventional upland livestock production, the largest energy input is again indirect in the form of concentrated and cereal feeds. When reared organically, a greater proportion of the feed for dairy cattle, beef and hill sheep is derived from grass. In the case of milk production, it has been found that organic systems are almost five times more energy efficient on a per animal basis and three and a half times more energy efficient in terms of unit output (the energy required to produce a litre of milk) (13).
...but not when it goes global.
So far so good - but once passed the farm-gate, things begin to go wrong. Britain imports over three-quarters of its organic produce, and despite consumer demand, only two per cent of its land is organically farmed (14). As the market has grown it has been met by imports.
A study looking at the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions when importing organic food products to the UK by plane (15) found that carbon dioxide emissions range from 1.6 kilograms to 10.7 kilograms. Air transport of food is the worst environmental option but road transport, especially unnecessary journeys, is also bad. For example 5kg of Sicilian potatoes travelling 2448 miles emits 771 grams of carbon dioxide.
The problem is that, overall, human beings have developed a tendency to deal with problems on an ad hoc basis - i.e., to deal with 'problems of the moment'. This does not foster an attitude of seeing a problem embedded in the context of another problem.
Globalisation makes it impossible for modern societies to collapse in isolation. Any society in turmoil today, no matter how remote, can cause problems for prosperous societies on other continents, and is also subject to their influence (whether helpful or destabilising).
For the first time in history, we face the risk of a global decline.
The important point to take away from this is, that without oil, there is no more cheap food, no more cheap food, starvation, inflation, and all those goodies from around the world won't be in your shops anymore.
Little oil for industry, less food, populations in excess of the lands carrying capacity and the world changes in the next decade in some very undesirable ways;
"shtlk, is there anything you can recommend?"
Personally? Nations will need to become autarkic (self sufficent within their own borders) for food and energy needs, not wasting energy on global transportation where not absolutly nessicary. We will need greater decentralisation to communities to live within their own capacities.
Neither of these things are economic, and economists won't want to change their minds on this, until they are forced at the last moment. Governements don't want to scare you as to how close these problems might be, and also it is difficult for them to form a global plan with differences of opinions and needs across the globe.
Hopefully this has raised your awareness of the severity of peak oil and how it will affect the world, as well as the timescale for the first of these effects to kick in mid-end of this decade.
Good luck.
PS: If your thinking of travelling the world, and tasting its delights do it now while oil is still 'cheap'…
If you would like some further reading on the issues raised here, this website covers much of the same material in much greater detial.
drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm
Like it or not, world production of oil is/has peaked. From now on mankind will not be able to rely on this wonderful resource that has literally fuelled the worlds economy since the age of steam. Yet you probably ask, where is the news report? Why isn't the media in a frenzy, why hasn't the world chugged out of gas yet? It's a good question, the answer is we have known about it so long that it makes a slow news day, and anyhow, peak oil is not the same as the end of oil.
Yet before I explore what is happening in the world I want to stress the nature of a little thing called growth.
Let us take this little example:
I am drinking a bottle of water and it takes 1min for me to finish it, and each second I drink the water twice as fast as I did before. How long did it take me to drink half the bottle?
Answer:
30 seconds?
If only! It may supprise you to find that the bottle was still half full 59secs after I started drinking.
Surprised? Maybe not, but think about that bottle example, as oil, when I am drinking the fastest, there is only half the available liquid left, then think about this, if we are consuming oil at the fastest rate today, how long is it going to be before the bottle is empty?
This is the state of the world today, and the oil is gone in a blink of an eye.
But we've all heard before that technology will save us, new oil fields will be found; "Don't worry, it's only a question of innovation!" It sounds pretty plausible, I mean how could there be that many smart people in the world and non of them are worried? The truth is, our governments and media just don't want to listen.
Let's look at new oil field discoveries;
Doesn't look that promising really does it, but then let's look at production;
It's rather clear that that exponetial growth has stalled with only major discoveries like polar oil and Alaska keeping that world curve just about steady.
The short message is that new oil is just not going to be found anymore to sustain our demard for cheap energy. Just look where we are on that curve. Now recall that graph about how much oil is left in the world and how quickly the world goes from 'full tank' to 'empty'. This isn't just us having reduction in supply rates, this is us litterally using up the last drop of (economic) oil by perhaps as soon as 2025.
"But Science will provide the answer! Won't it?"
Well let's first find out how much energy is in a mass of oil compared to other energy generating methods;
200 Three Gorges Dams, or
2,600 Nuclear Power Plants, or
5,200 Coal Fired, or
1,642,500 Wind Turbines, or
4,562,500,000 Solar Panels
Dang! And that's just 1 cubic mile???!
Well if you think about it, oil is the stored energy of thousands of years of solar energy condensed down into an incredibly energy dense liquid, litterally we burn through centuries worth of energy every few seconds!!!
A comparison of energy densities of other 'scientific' answers to when we run out of energy;
"But nesscity is the mother of invention?"
Just hope it is enough and the worlds eggheads aren't as caught short as the rest of us on the motorway at finding something as cheap, exportable and energy dense as oil…
"…And if they can't?"
Well the first thing that we must realise is that cheap energy has driven world economic growth directly;
So as the oil runs out, it's not just that we run out of oil. There will be global recession, yet again far worse than the credit crunch, we may fall into depression, and if not kept in check by very careful government control, out and out collaspe of industrial soceity.
The question that you must be asking yourself today is;
How is my country preparing for the next global recession; the oils' already running out?
We shouldn't be looking to economic growth, because it is fundermentally unsustainable in a world with finite resources. The only sustainable growth rate is 0%, and that's only if that resource is 100% recyclible…
"Is that it?"
Well did you know that your entire food supply is based on a cheap oil supply? Yes, that's right your food.
"Why Our Food Is So Dependent On Oil
By Norman Church"
"Eating Oil" was the title of a book which was published in 1978 following the first oil crisis in 1973 (1). The aim of the book was to investigate the extent to which food supply in industrialised countries relied on fossil fuels. In the summer of 2000 the degree of dependence on oil in the UK food system was demonstrated once again when protestors blockaded oil refineries and fuel distribution depots. The fuel crises disrupted the distribution of food and industry leaders warned that their stores would be out of food within days. The lessons of 1973 have not been heeded.
Today the food system is even more reliant on cheap crude oil. Virtually all of the processes in the modern food system are now dependent upon this finite resource, which is nearing its depletion phase.
Moreover, at a time when we should be making massive cuts in the emissions of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere in order to reduce the threat posed by climate change, the food system is lengthening its supply chains and increasing emissions to the point where it is a significant contributor to global warming.
The organic sector could be leading the development of a sustainable food system. Direct environmental and ecological impacts of agriculture 'on the farm' are certainly reduced in organic systems. However, global trade and distribution of organic products fritter away those benefits and undermine its leadership role.
Not only is the contemporary food system inherently unsustainable, increasingly, it is damaging the environment.
The systems that produce the world's food supply are heavily dependent on fossil fuels. Vast amounts of oil and gas are used as raw materials and energy in the manufacture of fertilisers and pesticides, and as cheap and readily available energy at all stages of food production: from planting, irrigation, feeding and harvesting, through to processing, distribution and packaging. In addition, fossil fuels are essential in the construction and the repair of equipment and infrastructure needed to facilitate this industry, including farm machinery, processing facilities, storage, ships, trucks and roads. The industrial food supply system is one of the biggest consumers of fossil fuels and one of the greatest producers of greenhouse gases.
Ironically, the food industry is at serious risk from global warming caused by these greenhouse gases, through the disruption of the predictable climactic cycles on which agriculture depends. But global warming can have the more pronounced and immediate effect of exacerbating existing environmental threats to agriculture, many of which are caused by industrial agriculture itself. Environmental degradation, water shortages, salination, soil erosion, pests, disease and desertification all pose serious threats to our food supply, and are made worse by climate change. But many of the conventional ways used to overcome these environmental problems further increase the consumption of finite oil and gas reserves. Thus the cycle of oil dependence and environmental degradation continues.
Industrial agriculture and the systems of food supply are also responsible for the erosion of communities throughout the world. This social degradation is compounded by trade rules and policies, by the profit driven mindset of the industry, and by the lack of knowledge of the faults of the current systems and the possibilities of alternatives. But the globalisation and corporate control that seriously threaten society and the stability of our environment are only possible because cheap energy is used to replace labour and allows the distance between producer and consumer to be extended.
However, this is set to change. Oil output is expected to peak in the next few years and steadily decline thereafter. We have a very poor understanding of how the extreme fluctuations in the availability and cost of both oil and natural gas will affect the global food supply systems, and how they will be able to adapt to the decreasing availability of energy. In the near future, environmental threats will combine with energy scarcity to cause significant food shortages and sharp increases in prices - at the very least. We are about to enter an era where we will have to once again feed the world with limited use of fossil fuels. But do we have enough time, knowledge, money, energy and political power to make this massive transformation to our food systems when they are already threatened by significant environmental stresses and increasing corporate control?
The modern, commercial agricultural miracle that feeds all of us, and much of the rest of the world, is completely dependent on the flow, processing and distribution of oil, and technology is critical to maintaining that flow.
Oil refined for gasoline and diesel is critical to run the tractors, combines and other farm vehicles and equipment that plant, spray the herbicides and pesticides, and harvest/transport food and seed Food processors rely on the just-in-time (gasoline-based) delivery of fresh or refrigerated food Food processors rely on the production and delivery of food additives, including vitamins and minerals, emulsifiers, preservatives, colouring agents, etc. Many are oil-based. Delivery is oil-based Food processors rely on the production and delivery of boxes, metal cans, printed paper labels, plastic trays, cellophane for microwave/convenience foods, glass jars, plastic and metal lids with sealing compounds. Many of these are essentially oil-based Delivery of finished food products to distribution centres in refrigerated trucks. Oil-based, daily, just-in-time shipment of food to grocery stores, restaurants, hospitals, schools, etc., all oil-based; customer drives to grocery store to shop for supplies, often several times a week
ENERGY, TRANSPORT AND THE FOOD SYSTEM
Our food system is energy inefficient...
One indicator of the unsustainability of the contemporary food system is the ratio of energy outputs - the energy content of a food product (calories) - to the energy inputs.
The latter is all the energy consumed in producing, processing, packaging and distributing that product. The energy ratio (energy out/energy in) in agriculture has decreased from being close to 100 for traditional pre-industrial societies to less than 1 in most cases in the present food system, as energy inputs, mainly in the form of fossil fuels, have gradually increased.
However, transport energy consumption is also significant, and if included in these ratios would mean that the ratio would decrease further. For example, when iceberg lettuce is imported to the UK from the USA by plane, the energy ratio is only 0.00786. In other words 127 calories of energy (aviation fuel) are needed to transport 1 calorie of lettuce across the Atlantic. If the energy consumed during lettuce cultivation, packaging, refrigeration, distribution in the UK and shopping by car was included, the energy needed would be even higher. Similarly, 97 calories of transport energy are needed to import 1 calorie of asparagus by plane from Chile, and 66 units of energy are consumed when flying 1 unit of carrot energy from South Africa.
Just how energy inefficient the food system is can be seen in the crazy case of the Swedish tomato ketchup. Researchers at the Swedish Institute for Food and Biotechnology analysed the production of tomato ketchup (2). The study considered the production of inputs to agriculture, tomato cultivation and conversion to tomato paste (in Italy), the processing and packaging of the paste and other ingredients into tomato ketchup in Sweden and the retail and storage of the final product. All this involved more than 52 transport and process stages.
The aseptic bags used to package the tomato paste were produced in the Netherlands and transported to Italy to be filled, placed in steel barrels, and then moved to Sweden. The five layered, red bottles were either produced in the UK or Sweden with materials form Japan, Italy, Belgium, the USA and Denmark. The polypropylene (PP) screw-cap of the bottle and plug, made from low density polyethylene (LDPE), was produced in Denmark and transported to Sweden. Additionally, LDPE shrink-film and corrugated cardboard were used to distribute the final product. Labels, glue and ink were not included in the analysis.
This example demonstrates the extent to which the food system is now dependent on national and international freight transport. However, there are many other steps involved in the production of this everyday product. These include the transportation associated with: the production and supply of nitrogen, phosphorous and potassium fertilisers; pesticides; processing equipment; and farm machinery. It is likely that other ingredients such as sugar, vinegar, spices and salt were also imported. Most of the processes listed above will also depend on derivatives of fossil fuels. This product is also likely to be purchased in a shopping trip by car.
One study has estimated that UK imports of food products and animal feed involved transportation by sea, air and road amounting to over 83 billion tonne-kilometres (3). This required 1.6 billion litres of fuel and, based on a conservative figure of 50 grams of carbon dioxide per tonne-kilometre resulted in 4.1 million tonnes of carbon dioxide emissions (4). Within the UK, the amount of food transported increased by 16% and the distances travelled by 50% between 1978 and 1999.
It has been estimated that the CO2 emissions attributable to producing, processing, packaging and distributing the food consumed by a family of four is about 8 tonnes a year (5)
..and is unnecessarily contributing to carbon emissions.
It is not that this transportation is critical or necessary. In many cases countries import and export similar quantities of the same food products (6). A recent report has highlighted the instances in which countries import and export large quantities of particular foodstuffs (6). For example, in 1997, 126 million litres of liquid milk was imported into the UK and, at the same time, 270 million litres of milk was exported from the UK. 23,000 tonnes of milk powder was imported into the UK and 153,000 tonnes exported (7). UK milk imports have doubled over the last 20 years, but there has been a four-fold increase in UK milk exports over the last 30 years (8).
Britain imports 61,400 tonnes of poultry meat a year from the Netherlands and exports 33,100 tonnes to the Netherlands. We import 240,000 tonnes of pork and 125,000 tonnes of lamb while exporting 195,000 tonnes of pork and 102,000 tonnes of lamb (6).
This system is unsustainable, illogical, and bizarre and can only exist as long as inexpensive fossil fuels are available and we do not take significant action to reduce carbon dioxide emissions.
GLOBAL WARMING AND FINITE OIL
The threat of global warming and the need to reduce carbon emissions
The nearness of the depletion stage of oil supplies
Discovery of oil and gas peaked in the 1960s. Production is set to peak too, with five Middle Eastern countries regaining control of world supply (9). Almost two-thirds of the world's total reserves of crude oil are located in the Middle East, notably in Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq (10). An assessment of future world oil supply and its depletion pattern shows that between 1980 and 1998 there was an 11.2 per cent increase in world crude oil production, from 59.6 to 66.9 million barrels of oil per day (10). Current world production rates are about 25 Gb (billion barrels) per year. A simple calculation shows that if consumption levels remain constant, world crude oil reserves, at approximately 1 trillion barrels, could be exhausted around 2040 (11).
The oil crises of the 1970s when the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) states reined in their production have passed into folk memory. However, they were accompanied by massive disruption and global economic recession. The same happened in 1980 and 1991 (12).
Colin J. Campbell, a pre-eminent oil industry analyst, believes that future crises will be much worse. "The oil shocks of the 1970s were short-lived because there were then plenty of new oil and gas finds to bring on stream. This time there are virtually no new prolific basins to yield a crop of giant fields sufficient to have a global impact. The growing Middle East control of the market is likely to lead to a radical and permanent increase in the price of oil, before physical shortages begin to appear within the first decade of the 21st century. The world's economy has been driven by an abundant supply of cheap oil-based energy for the best part of this century. The coming oil crisis will accordingly be an economic and political discontinuity of historic proportions, as the world adjusts to a new energy environment" (9).
The three main purposes for which oil is used worldwide are food, transport and heating. In the near future the competition for oil for these three activities will be raw and real. An energy famine is likely to affect poorer countries first, when increases in the cost of paraffin, used for cooking, place it beyond their reach. Following the peak in production, food supplies all over the world will begin to be disrupted, not only because of price increases but because the oil will no longer be there.
IS ORGANIC ANY DIFFERENT?
The organic system is more energy efficient to the farm gate...
One of the benefits of organic production is that energy consumption and, therefore, fossil fuel consumption and greenhouse gas emissions, are less than that in conventional systems.
The energy used in food production is separated into direct and indirect inputs. Indirect inputs include the manufacture and supply of pesticides, feedstuffs and fertilisers while direct energy inputs are those on the farm, such as machinery. One measure of the energy efficiency of food production that allows a comparison between different farming practices is the energy consumed per unit output, often expressed as the energy consumed per tonne of food produced (MJ/tonne) or the energy consumed per kilogram of food (MJ/kg).
A study comparing organic and conventional livestock, dairy, vegetable and arable systems in the UK found that, with average yields, the energy saving with organic production ranged from 0.14 MJ/kg to 1.79 MJ/kg, with the average being 0.68 MJ/kg or 42 per cent (13). The improved energy efficiency in organic systems is largely due to lower (or zero) fertiliser and pesticide inputs, which account for half of the energy input in conventional potato and winter wheat production and up to 80 per cent of the energy consumed in some vegetable crops.
In conventional upland livestock production, the largest energy input is again indirect in the form of concentrated and cereal feeds. When reared organically, a greater proportion of the feed for dairy cattle, beef and hill sheep is derived from grass. In the case of milk production, it has been found that organic systems are almost five times more energy efficient on a per animal basis and three and a half times more energy efficient in terms of unit output (the energy required to produce a litre of milk) (13).
...but not when it goes global.
So far so good - but once passed the farm-gate, things begin to go wrong. Britain imports over three-quarters of its organic produce, and despite consumer demand, only two per cent of its land is organically farmed (14). As the market has grown it has been met by imports.
A study looking at the energy consumption and carbon dioxide emissions when importing organic food products to the UK by plane (15) found that carbon dioxide emissions range from 1.6 kilograms to 10.7 kilograms. Air transport of food is the worst environmental option but road transport, especially unnecessary journeys, is also bad. For example 5kg of Sicilian potatoes travelling 2448 miles emits 771 grams of carbon dioxide.
The problem is that, overall, human beings have developed a tendency to deal with problems on an ad hoc basis - i.e., to deal with 'problems of the moment'. This does not foster an attitude of seeing a problem embedded in the context of another problem.
Globalisation makes it impossible for modern societies to collapse in isolation. Any society in turmoil today, no matter how remote, can cause problems for prosperous societies on other continents, and is also subject to their influence (whether helpful or destabilising).
For the first time in history, we face the risk of a global decline.
The important point to take away from this is, that without oil, there is no more cheap food, no more cheap food, starvation, inflation, and all those goodies from around the world won't be in your shops anymore.
Little oil for industry, less food, populations in excess of the lands carrying capacity and the world changes in the next decade in some very undesirable ways;
"shtlk, is there anything you can recommend?"
Personally? Nations will need to become autarkic (self sufficent within their own borders) for food and energy needs, not wasting energy on global transportation where not absolutly nessicary. We will need greater decentralisation to communities to live within their own capacities.
Neither of these things are economic, and economists won't want to change their minds on this, until they are forced at the last moment. Governements don't want to scare you as to how close these problems might be, and also it is difficult for them to form a global plan with differences of opinions and needs across the globe.
Hopefully this has raised your awareness of the severity of peak oil and how it will affect the world, as well as the timescale for the first of these effects to kick in mid-end of this decade.
Good luck.
PS: If your thinking of travelling the world, and tasting its delights do it now while oil is still 'cheap'…
If you would like some further reading on the issues raised here, this website covers much of the same material in much greater detial.
drmillslmu.com/peakoil.htm